Love Your Neighbour: The Politics of North Korean Soldiers in Russia
Reports and videos of thousands of North Korean soldiers training in Russia have given rise to questions about the future of Putin’s war in Ukraine. While practical consequences are crucial, the political implications may raise even deeper questions. The arrival of North Korean aid in Russia undeniably marks a new phase in both Russia's war in Ukraine and global political dynamics. However, it comes as no surprise given the recent developments between Moscow and Pyongyang.
Wind of Change
The conclusion of a grandiose treaty in June between Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un signalled the final nail in the coffin of Russia’s agreement with Western nations on the containing of North Korea’s ever-expanding nuclear arsenal. With the increasingly aggressive nature of Kim’s policies and North Korea’s illicit development of nuclear weapons, the Russian president was initially eager to uphold dominance and influence in Asia. This led to broader cooperation with China and the US in condemning Kim's actions. This agreement, which has its roots in 2012, developed into economic sanctions by 2017. Even though the sanctions were seldom upheld by Putin, there was still a visible restriction of trade between the two countries. However, it is important to note that, at that time, Russia had not been engaged in an almost three-year-long war, which is now not only straining the economy but also testing the resilience of autocracy—the President's carefully crafted creation.
Fairtrade
Since the summer of 2023, a continuous flow of various munitions (including shells, artillery rounds and ballistic missiles) from North Korea to Russia has been observed, which has reaffirmed a shift in Russian policy set down in the June treaty. The Treaty is widely interpreted as one which serves to garner increased cooperation between the nations, in the face of growing international isolation. North Korea gets ‘hard cash’ and support for its economy, while Russia receives highly sought-after manpower for the war. The recent shift in Russian policy towards North Korea has been interpreted by numerous experts as a sign of desperation. John Foreman, former British defence attaché to Moscow, remarked that Russia's reliance on North Korean support underscores the weakness in its military-industrial complex and a pressing need for personnel. This development is also viewed as further evidence that the Russian military is struggling to maintain its position in Ukraine.
The Waiting Game
Even though the development is arguably foreseeable, it represents a more open shift in policy for Russia, thus pushing other nations to adjust their attitudes accordingly. The unfolding events carry significant implications for North Korea’s southern neighbour, South Korea, who has been keen to avoid conflict or escalation with nuclear power. Another notable interpretation of the treaty signed in June is North Korea’s assurance of Russian support in the event of a conflict with South Korea, an outcome that appears increasingly likely given recent developments. Even though the South Korean government has participated in the imposition of economic sanctions on Russia and has previously sent humanitarian aid to Ukraine, there has never been a direct flow of arms between many European countries and Ukraine. However, as indicated by Yoon Suk Yeol, a senior official in the South Korean government, the leadership would “consider supplying weapons for defensive purposes.” This development could lead to a situation reminiscent of the Cold War, in that North and South Korea would be actively supporting opposing sides in a conflict.
The outcome of the upcoming U.S. presidential election is poised to significantly influence the trajectory of the war in Ukraine, especially considering North Korea's involvement. Notably, France and Germany have recently exhibited reluctance to bypass Hungary's veto on over €6 billion in aid to Ukraine, indicating a potential decline in their support. Should Donald Trump be re-elected, there is concern that Ukraine could lose its primary source of military assistance, as Trump has previously expressed intentions to halt military aid to Ukraine. To date, the U.S. has provided Ukraine with support worth $64.1 billion. Although, this could be compromised by the isolationist politics that have been forecast for the next four years, in the event of Republican domination next week. As was quite fittingly represented in Nicola Jennings’ cartoon for The Guardian, the nature of further developments greatly hinges on the person of the next president of the United States.
The key takeaways from North Korea’s intervention are twofold. On the one hand, they signal Putin’s desperation and provide a basis for the hope that Russia is running out of manpower. On the other, it also means the practical tightening of a budding relationship between two isolated nations. While North Korea’s clear involvement in the conflict may provide Zelenskyy with diplomatic leverage to argue for increased aid, it is unlikely to meet his pressing need for additional military resources.
By: Laura Finch
