The Underlying Effects a Second Trump Presidency Could Have On Britain

As American citizens are taking advantage of their constitutional rights under the 15th Amendment by casting their votes for a future president, the rest of the world is watching the crucial outcome.

The stakes have never been higher, not just for the future of the United States – but also for the subsequent consequences falling upon the UK. The contrasting leadership styles promised under Donald Trump, leading the Republican party and current Vice President Kamala Harris, representing the Democratic party, give rise to several crucial considerations concerning international relations, economic and socio-political factors. Yet, what could a second Trump presidency truly mean for the UK? How are we, across the Atlantic, so dramatically affected by the upcoming US presidential election?

US Foreign Policies and Alliances
Isolationism and scepticism against NATO are deeply rooted within Trump’s campaign and his ‘America First’ program. Internationalists fear his dismantlement of the liberal order the US and its allies, including the UK, have built since World War II.

Scholars have commented that, if Trump is re-elected, a lack of US support, particularly due to the escalation of the war in the Middle East, continuation in Ukraine and growing tensions in the East between China and Taiwan, could present a challenging foreign policy position for the UK. As a direct consequence, the UK and Europe would be faced with the urgent need to become more defensively autonomous, possibly drawing them closer together and signalling a drift from the US. The effects are already tangible, with the UK having increased their support for Ukraine and European policymakers discussing terms of nuclear deterrence.

Since the UK is already exceeding the NATO target of spending 2% of GDP on defence, aiming at 2.5%, a possible future Republican demand to further increase on defence as a share of GDP is unlikely to dramatically affect Britain. Yet, any weakening of a NATO alliance and Trump’s unwillingness to aid could encourage the Russian president – concerningly precisely now at a time when the UK domestic intelligence service chief is warning of an increased threat from ‘Putin’s henchmen’. These points stand in stark contrast to the future promised under Harris, shaped by a robust commitment to the international community.

Trade Opportunities
The core question at hand is whether a Trump presidency could reignite protectionist policies – measures taken by the government to restrict or limit international trade – that hinder trade with the US.

The promised doctrine could signal increased tariffs and trade barriers to stimulate trade within the US. Especially regarding China, Trump has reiterated his firm stance on considering imposing a tariff of 60% on all imports from China and urges Europe, as well as the UK, to align with his policies.

For the UK, the ‘America first’ policy particularly affects the sectors of automotive and agriculture. In the past, Trump has threatened tariffs on UK car imports and a desire for the UK to open itself up to US food products like chlorine-treated chicken and hormone-treated meat. Thus, highlighting a risk for British exports.

Examining the world at large, according to NIESR, after five years of a re-elected Trump presidency, the global economy could have suffered a GDP drop of 2%. This is a devastatingly high number, supported by Economist John Hawkins. Hawkins argued that under Trump's proposed economic policies, a “protectionist and smaller U.S. economy would be a drag on global economic growth.” This is due to the foreseen international response to Trump’s introduction of tariffs, which would not only increase inflation within the US but overseas as well. 

Socio-Political Ramifications
In recent years, we have become witness to alarming polarisation in American society, especially due to factors such as the overturning of Roe v Wade in 2022, ending the half-century precedent that protected abortion rights nationwide.

Arguably, the political climate within the UK is intertwined with socio-political developments in the US. A Trump victory might exacerbate ideological divides within British society, particularly regarding issues like women’s rights and democratic integrity. Considering that far-right movements have gained traction in recent years, the democratically questionable actions of Trump’s repeated claims of election fraud and his refusal to accept the results of the 2020 election could inspire a similar movement within the UK.

Concluding Remarks
It is crucial to understand that whilst this election is taking place in the US, the consequences will be felt internationally. The outcome has the power to reshape historic alliances and immensely affect the lives of innocent individuals.

Will these predictions manifest themselves into reality? Only time and the individual decisions of millions of Americans can tell. For now, within the UK and international community, we will continue to watch the US election with a bated breath.

By: Estella Neumayr