Second Brexit? The Question of Scottish Independence
If I were to fictionalise the most recent bid by Nicola Sturgeon to see another independence referendum held in Scotland, I would cast Ms Sturgeon in the role of the much beloved Lord of The Rings character Pippin reasoning out with Aragorn (in this case the British Parliament) the possibility of a second breakfast, the exchange playing out much as it did in the film: Nicola Sturgeon – “What about a referendum?”; Parliament – “You’ve already had it…”; Nicola Sturgeon – “We’ve had one yes, but what about a second referendum?”. Cue much hilarity as Parliament rolls its heavy eyes and saunters off screen, much to the protestation of the referendum-hungry Ms Sturgeon.
The First Minister of Scotland and head of the Scottish National Party (SNP) has seemingly had her finger on the “indyref2” trigger from the word go. Sturgeon waited only 2 years from failure in the first referendum before calling for yet another one. This was in light of the support within Scotland for the UK to remain a member of the European Union, with 62% of Scottish voters backing remain in the 2016 Brexit referendum. Unsurprisingly, the political back and forth between Sturgeon’s SNP and the UK Government has often been bitter, accusatory, and convoluted. One comparison that has yet to be made by either side is that of the obvious similarities between Scottish independence and Brexit: claims that independence will make the country “happier, richer and fairer” feel as though they could just as easily have been born from the mouth of Nigel Farage as Sturgeon. In this article, then, I would like to explore the realities of Scottish independence in light of the increasingly clear impact of Brexit on the United Kingdom, asking what would an independent Scotland look like?
So, if it is happiness or richness that the SNP are after, we should perhaps first discuss the economy, and the salient reasons why Scotland might not be so happy or rich in the wake of a referendum. Even in its earliest days, Brexit’s leave campaign hinged on the notion that the UK didn’t need the EU’s markets. No matter how immense or how integral, Great Britain could do without all that European trade; rather the country could surely make a fortune “buccaneering” around the world markets, striking trade deals worthy of our reputation for “ruling the waves”. As it turns out, patriotism and an attitude to trade themed around the age of piracy, a healthy economy does not make. In its most recent, and arguably most public trade deal, the UK managed to secure a “favourable” arrangement with New Zealand, who account for a grand total of 0.2% of trade for the UK. This undeniably lacklustre reality is the result of the fact that it is markedly easier to trade with geographically close countries.
This fact would also apply to Scotland post-independence, except the effects would be far more dramatic. The UK, at least, left the EU clinging on to roughly 70 trade agreements internationally, and a potent domestic market. In gaining independence Scotland might sacrifice even this, as well as the domestic market within the UK. A study from the London School of Economics found that Scotland’s income per capita is set to shrink by at least 2% from the ramifications of Brexit solely. And if Scotland did leave the UK? The same team ran a high and low-cost scenario – both scenarios in the report made clear that Scottish independence would be expensive; in terms of income per capita, the move would be two to three times more damaging than Brexit alone.
The alleged best case for Scotland – re-joining the EU’s single market – was described by the report as unlikely. Notwithstanding, if it could be achieved, the report gloomily predicted the damage could be halved at best.
The argument, then, might be made that despite this worrying news that Scottish independence would at least secure Scotland’s legal and political autonomy. The case for this too is shaky. Much as the UK has discovered post-Brexit, law-making that flies in the face of trading partners is difficult. The UK has been unable to create business-attracting tax cuts after being strong-armed out of the idea by the EU, who pledged that they would diminish trade in retaliation. The UK has further been forced to adhere to EU regulations to maintain ease of access between markets, suffering millions of pounds in losses where changes have been made. Perhaps worst of all, Great Britain now finds itself without a seat at the table of these discussions. All this would apply to Scotland with much greater intensity.
Unless Scotland can identify some Hail Mary manoeuvre – which Northern gas reserves categorically are not – it is unlikely to see much better results. With all this in mind, it is perhaps time to tentatively suggest that the UK begin using its post-Brexit years to encourage national stability and unity of cause and direction; the Scottish, English, Welsh, and Northern Irish Parliaments putting aside ancient historical sleights to step out onto the world stage with one voice.
Besides, I think Scotland would miss all of Andy Murray’s losing games’ being British.
